Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 8.0 | 11.9% | 100 | 0.87% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 11.1 | 15.5% | 130 | 0.96% |
| 20-29 | 32 | 15.3 | 20.7% | 174 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 11.4 | 17.9% | 150 | 1.1% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 8.7 | 11.7% | 98 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 7.7 | 10.7% | 90 | 0.72% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.6 | 6.9% | 58 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 7 | 3.0 | 4.6% | 39 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 127 | 69.9 | 100% | 839 | 0.8% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 03 | 18990 | 65448 | 588 | 154 | 832 |
| Dec 04 | 19043 | 65549 | 588 | 154 | 784 |
| Dec 05 | 19044 | 65580 | 588 | 155 | 785 |
| Dec 06 | 19084 | 65640 | 588 | 155 | 731 |
| Dec 07 | 19129 | 65659 | 588 | 155 | 704 |
| Dec 08 | 19242 | 65825 | 589 | 155 | 817 |
| Dec 09 | 19369 | 65935 | 591 | 155 | 839 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 03 | 12631 | 38167 | 533 | 131 | 513 |
| Dec 04 | 12668 | 38214 | 534 | 132 | 499 |
| Dec 05 | 12669 | 38240 | 534 | 132 | 499 |
| Dec 06 | 12685 | 38269 | 535 | 132 | 515 |
| Dec 07 | 12749 | 38279 | 535 | 132 | 572 |
| Dec 08 | 12786 | 38340 | 541 | 133 | 609 |
| Dec 09 | 12856 | 38391 | 549 | 134 | 498 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 5.1 | 10% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 6.1 | 14.1% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 4.4 | 12% | 60 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 7.6 | 20.1% | 100 | 1.19% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.3 | 13.1% | 65 | 0.84% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 6.4 | 14.3% | 71 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.7 | 6.6% | 33 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 10 | 4.1 | 9.8% | 49 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 70 | 41.9 | 100% | 498 | 0.77% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 03 | 9827 | 25397 | 431 | 101 | 416 |
| Dec 04 | 9836 | 25432 | 432 | 101 | 383 |
| Dec 05 | 9845 | 25453 | 435 | 101 | 380 |
| Dec 06 | 9871 | 25467 | 435 | 101 | 361 |
| Dec 07 | 9912 | 25483 | 435 | 101 | 390 |
| Dec 08 | 9963 | 25541 | 437 | 101 | 416 |
| Dec 09 | 10031 | 25568 | 440 | 101 | 459 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.1 | 6.3% | 29 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 3.9 | 11.3% | 52 | 0.96% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 5.3 | 14.8% | 68 | 1.5% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 5.9 | 17.9% | 82 | 1.51% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.9 | 15.3% | 70 | 1.41% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 5.9 | 15.5% | 71 | 1.05% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 3.9 | 10.2% | 47 | 0.74% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.6 | 8.7% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 68 | 36.3 | 100% | 459 | 1.01% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 03 | 20016 | 76520 | 757 | 128 | 769 |
| Dec 04 | 20027 | 76649 | 760 | 128 | 779 |
| Dec 05 | 20090 | 76701 | 762 | 128 | 842 |
| Dec 06 | 20194 | 76827 | 762 | 128 | 812 |
| Dec 07 | 20252 | 76865 | 762 | 128 | 830 |
| Dec 08 | 20341 | 77072 | 765 | 130 | 863 |
| Dec 09 | 20509 | 77198 | 767 | 130 | 912 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 27 | 12.0 | 15.4% | 140 | 1.18% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 13.6 | 16.8% | 153 | 0.92% |
| 20-29 | 39 | 13.9 | 16% | 146 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 12.9 | 17.1% | 156 | 1.15% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 9.0 | 12.9% | 118 | 0.87% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 9.6 | 11.6% | 106 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.1 | 6% | 55 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 7 | 3.7 | 4.2% | 38 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 168 | 78.7 | 100% | 912 | 0.77% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 03 | 63813 | 442132 | 2075 | 393 | 2049 |
| Dec 04 | 63836 | 442940 | 2078 | 393 | 1865 |
| Dec 05 | 63930 | 443223 | 2079 | 393 | 1958 |
| Dec 06 | 64111 | 443561 | 2079 | 393 | 2037 |
| Dec 07 | 64290 | 443743 | 2079 | 393 | 2173 |
| Dec 08 | 64528 | 444604 | 2079 | 395 | 2366 |
| Dec 09 | 64834 | 445331 | 2080 | 398 | 2319 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 82 | 36.1 | 16.4% | 381 | 0.63% |
| 10-19 | 65 | 34.6 | 17.1% | 396 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 42 | 35.9 | 20.5% | 476 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 40 | 30.0 | 16.5% | 383 | 0.5% |
| 40-49 | 36 | 20.6 | 11.7% | 272 | 0.41% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 16.6 | 9.2% | 213 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.6 | 4.9% | 114 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 8 | 5.6 | 3.7% | 85 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 306 | 185.9 | 100% | 2319 | 0.42% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 03 | 1002430 | 3707065 | 50239 | 10240 | 39201 |
| Dec 04 | 1003415 | 3713313 | 50355 | 10245 | 35885 |
| Dec 05 | 1005126 | 3716125 | 50417 | 10259 | 36836 |
| Dec 06 | 1008105 | 3719547 | 50445 | 10260 | 37168 |
| Dec 07 | 1012189 | 3721171 | 50447 | 10260 | 39352 |
| Dec 08 | 1017301 | 3730245 | 50702 | 10330 | 42430 |
| Dec 09 | 1024094 | 3736187 | 50929 | 10386 | 43319 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 836 | 469.4 | 12.3% | 5342 | 0.83% |
| 10-19 | 977 | 517.1 | 13.9% | 6043 | 0.8% |
| 20-29 | 994 | 554.4 | 14.6% | 6327 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 1178 | 644.4 | 17.4% | 7543 | 1% |
| 40-49 | 975 | 503.4 | 13.4% | 5823 | 0.83% |
| 50-59 | 847 | 471.0 | 12.4% | 5350 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 585 | 347.6 | 9.1% | 3945 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 400 | 264.9 | 6.8% | 2943 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 6793 | 3772.4 | 100% | 43319 | 0.74% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 10170"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges